Premier League · Matchday 6 · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Win: Crystal Palace
38.2%
90% CI: 32.6–44.0
Draw
28.2%
90% CI: 26.7–29.8
Win: Nottingham Forest
33.6%
90% CI: 28.2–39.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Crystal Palace
xG 1.31
0
27.2%
22.9%–31.9%
1
35.3%
33.7%–36.4%
2
23.0%
20.8%–24.9%
3+
14.5%
10.9%–18.5%
Nottingham Forest
xG 1.21
0
30.1%
25.2%–35.2%
1
36.0%
34.7%–36.7%
2
21.7%
19.2%–23.9%
3+
12.3%
8.9%–16.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Crystal Palace, draw, Win: Nottingham Forest — shaded by likelihood.
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.