Premier League · Matchday 6 · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Win: Hull City
28.3%
90% CI: 23.8–32.9
Draw
29.4%
90% CI: 27.8–31.0
Win: Everton
42.4%
90% CI: 37.4–47.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Hull City
xG 1.00
0
36.8%
31.8%–41.8%
1
36.7%
36.3%–36.8%
2
18.4%
15.9%–20.8%
3+
8.2%
5.8%–10.9%
Everton
xG 1.29
0
27.6%
23.8%–31.6%
1
35.4%
34.2%–36.4%
2
22.8%
21.0%–24.5%
3+
14.1%
11.1%–17.5%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Hull City, draw, Win: Everton — shaded by likelihood.
| Hull City | Everton | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.4 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.