Premier League · Matchday 6 · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Win: Liverpool
38.2%
90% CI: 34.8–41.5
Draw
26.7%
90% CI: 25.9–27.5
Win: Manchester City
35.2%
90% CI: 31.9–38.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Liverpool
xG 1.42
0
24.3%
21.9%–26.8%
1
34.3%
33.3%–35.3%
2
24.3%
23.2%–25.3%
3+
17.1%
14.6%–19.6%
Manchester City
xG 1.35
0
26.0%
23.4%–28.6%
1
35.0%
34.0%–35.8%
2
23.6%
22.4%–24.7%
3+
15.5%
13.2%–17.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Liverpool, draw, Win: Manchester City — shaded by likelihood.
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.3 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.