Premier League · Matchday 7 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Everton
33.5%
90% CI: 30.4–36.7
Draw
27.8%
90% CI: 26.9–28.6
Win: Chelsea
38.7%
90% CI: 35.5–42.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Everton
xG 1.24
0
29.1%
26.3%–31.9%
1
35.9%
35.1%–36.5%
2
22.1%
20.8%–23.4%
3+
12.8%
10.8%–15.1%
Chelsea
xG 1.35
0
26.1%
23.6%–28.6%
1
35.0%
34.1%–35.8%
2
23.6%
22.4%–24.6%
3+
15.4%
13.2%–17.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Everton, draw, Win: Chelsea — shaded by likelihood.
| Everton | Chelsea | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.