Premier League · Matchday 7 · Monday, October 19, 2026
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
62.1%
90% CI: 38.8–83.6
Draw
21.5%
90% CI: 10.9–30.6
Win: Coventry City
16.4%
90% CI: 5.0–32.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Tottenham Hotspur
xG 2.06
0
15.2%
3.9%–30.4%
1
26.4%
12.7%–36.2%
2
24.8%
18.9%–27.1%
3+
33.7%
11.9%–62.8%
Coventry City
xG 0.90
0
42.2%
24.2%–59.5%
1
35.0%
30.3%–36.8%
2
15.8%
8.0%–24.3%
3+
7.0%
1.6%–17.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Tottenham Hotspur, draw, Win: Coventry City — shaded by likelihood.
| Tottenham Hotspur | Coventry City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.