Premier League · Matchday 7 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Brentford
39.8%
90% CI: 34.7–45.1
Draw
26.3%
90% CI: 25.0–27.6
Win: Liverpool
33.9%
90% CI: 29.1–38.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brentford
xG 1.48
0
22.9%
19.1%–26.8%
1
33.6%
31.6%–35.3%
2
24.8%
23.2%–26.2%
3+
18.6%
14.6%–23.1%
Liverpool
xG 1.35
0
26.1%
22.4%–29.9%
1
35.0%
33.5%–36.1%
2
23.5%
21.8%–25.1%
3+
15.4%
12.2%–19.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brentford, draw, Win: Liverpool — shaded by likelihood.
| Brentford | Liverpool | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.