Premier League · Matchday 7 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Fulham
54.0%
90% CI: 48.5–59.5
Draw
25.8%
90% CI: 23.7–27.7
Win: Hull City
20.2%
90% CI: 16.4–24.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Fulham
xG 1.64
0
19.4%
16.1%–23.0%
1
31.7%
29.4%–33.8%
2
26.0%
24.8%–26.9%
3+
22.8%
18.3%–27.7%
Hull City
xG 0.91
0
40.4%
35.6%–45.3%
1
36.5%
35.9%–36.8%
2
16.6%
14.2%–19.0%
3+
6.5%
4.6%–8.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Fulham, draw, Win: Hull City — shaded by likelihood.
| Fulham | Hull City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.