Premier League · Matchday 7 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Manchester City
87.7%
90% CI: 83.0–91.8
Draw
8.7%
90% CI: 6.0–11.6
Win: Ipswich Town
3.6%
90% CI: 2.1–5.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Manchester City
xG 3.42
0
3.4%
2.0%–5.2%
1
11.4%
7.8%–15.4%
2
19.1%
15.3%–22.8%
3+
66.1%
56.6%–74.9%
Ipswich Town
xG 0.64
0
52.9%
46.7%–59.1%
1
33.6%
31.1%–35.6%
2
10.8%
8.2%–13.6%
3+
2.8%
1.6%–4.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Manchester City, draw, Win: Ipswich Town — shaded by likelihood.
| Manchester City | Ipswich Town | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 2 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 3 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 5 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 10 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 12 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.