Premier League · Matchday 7 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Newcastle United
45.6%
90% CI: 42.0–49.3
Draw
25.5%
90% CI: 24.6–26.5
Win: Aston Villa
28.9%
90% CI: 25.8–32.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Newcastle United
xG 1.63
0
19.6%
17.3%–22.0%
1
31.9%
30.3%–33.3%
2
26.0%
25.2%–26.6%
3+
22.5%
19.5%–25.8%
Aston Villa
xG 1.26
0
28.5%
25.7%–31.3%
1
35.7%
34.9%–36.4%
2
22.4%
21.1%–23.7%
3+
13.3%
11.2%–15.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Newcastle United, draw, Win: Aston Villa — shaded by likelihood.
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.