Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sunday, October 18, 2026
Win: AFC Bournemouth
54.7%
90% CI: 49.6–59.6
Draw
24.5%
90% CI: 22.6–26.3
Win: Sunderland
20.8%
90% CI: 17.5–24.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
AFC Bournemouth
xG 1.77
0
17.2%
14.1%–20.4%
1
30.2%
27.6%–32.4%
2
26.6%
25.8%–27.0%
3+
26.1%
21.4%–31.2%
Sunderland
xG 1.00
0
36.7%
32.8%–40.7%
1
36.7%
36.5%–36.8%
2
18.4%
16.4%–20.4%
3+
8.1%
6.3%–10.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: AFC Bournemouth, draw, Win: Sunderland — shaded by likelihood.
| AFC Bournemouth | Sunderland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.