Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sunday, October 18, 2026
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
56.2%
90% CI: 51.0–61.3
Draw
24.2%
90% CI: 22.2–26.1
Win: Crystal Palace
19.6%
90% CI: 16.3–23.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG 1.80
0
16.7%
13.6%–19.8%
1
29.7%
27.2%–32.1%
2
26.7%
26.0%–27.1%
3+
26.9%
22.1%–32.1%
Crystal Palace
xG 0.97
0
37.9%
33.9%–41.9%
1
36.7%
36.4%–36.8%
2
17.8%
15.9%–19.8%
3+
7.6%
5.8%–9.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brighton & Hove Albion, draw, Win: Crystal Palace — shaded by likelihood.
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.