Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sunday, October 18, 2026
Win: Leeds United
29.2%
90% CI: 25.1–33.4
Draw
25.8%
90% CI: 24.6–27.0
Win: Manchester United
45.1%
90% CI: 40.3–49.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Leeds United
xG 1.25
0
28.9%
25.1%–32.7%
1
35.8%
34.7%–36.6%
2
22.3%
20.4%–24.0%
3+
13.1%
10.3%–16.2%
Manchester United
xG 1.60
0
20.3%
17.3%–23.4%
1
32.3%
30.3%–34.0%
2
25.8%
24.7%–26.6%
3+
21.7%
17.9%–25.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Leeds United, draw, Win: Manchester United — shaded by likelihood.
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.6 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.