Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sunday, October 18, 2026
Win: Nottingham Forest
24.6%
90% CI: 20.0–29.5
Draw
25.6%
90% CI: 23.7–27.4
Win: Arsenal
49.9%
90% CI: 43.9–55.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Nottingham Forest
xG 1.10
0
33.5%
28.6%–38.5%
1
36.5%
35.8%–36.8%
2
20.0%
17.6%–22.4%
3+
10.0%
7.2%–13.2%
Arsenal
xG 1.66
0
19.2%
15.5%–23.0%
1
31.5%
28.9%–33.8%
2
26.1%
24.8%–26.9%
3+
23.3%
18.3%–28.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Nottingham Forest, draw, Win: Arsenal — shaded by likelihood.
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.