World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Sunday, July 5, 2026
Win: Brazil
63.2%
90% CI: 49.5–76.2
Draw
20.7%
90% CI: 14.6–26.3
Win: Norway
16.1%
90% CI: 8.7–25.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brazil
xG 2.03
0
14.0%
6.8%–23.0%
1
26.7%
18.2%–33.8%
2
26.2%
23.8%–27.1%
3+
33.1%
18.3%–50.5%
Norway
xG 0.89
0
41.6%
30.2%–52.8%
1
35.9%
33.6%–36.8%
2
16.0%
10.8%–21.7%
3+
6.4%
2.7%–12.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brazil, draw, Win: Norway — shaded by likelihood.
|
Brazil
|
Norway
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.