World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Sunday, July 5, 2026
Win: Brazil
62.7%
90% CI: 49.1–75.7
Draw
21.1%
90% CI: 15.0–26.8
Win: Norway
16.1%
90% CI: 8.8–25.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brazil
xG 1.97
0
14.8%
7.3%–24.0%
1
27.4%
19.1%–34.3%
2
26.2%
23.8%–27.1%
3+
31.5%
17.3%–48.6%
Norway
xG 0.86
0
42.8%
31.4%–54.0%
1
35.8%
33.3%–36.8%
2
15.5%
10.3%–21.1%
3+
5.9%
2.5%–11.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brazil, draw, Win: Norway — shaded by likelihood.
|
Brazil
|
Norway
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.