The first matchday of the FIFA World Cup 2026 is almost in the books, and what a tournament it has been so far: from blow-outs and small-island upsets, to evidence No. 14, 15, and 16, with which Lionel Messi demonstrated once again why he just is the GOAT (of the 21st century) – at some point, there just is no arguing around that anymore.
But a few nations still have to make their debut in this tournament:: England, the motherland of football, who have been waiting for a title since the infamous Goal of Wembley against Germany in 1966 (well, the football gods evened the score in 2010 when everyone and their grandma saw that Frank Lampard’s shot had crossed the goal line), is facing Croatia, who have finished the last two World Cups, second- and third-placed respectively.
So, it is once again time for a closer look at the SFMMO.
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!!️ Note: the “most likely” scoreline need not necessarily coincide with the W/D/L probabilities, as one team may have more total ways to win.
Englandvs.
Croatia
Is football coming home this time around? Is this team better than England’s Golden Generation of the mid 2000s and early 2010s, when the Three Lions were packed with world class players from Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Paul Scholes, David Beckham, and Joe Cole, to Wayne Rooney, Michael Owen, and of course: Peter Crouch?
It seems so, if you ask England Coach Thomas Tuchel. The German coach of the Three Lions has turned up the pressure on himself even before the World Cup has even started. His decision to not call on Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, and Harry Maguire has generated some backlash in the motherland of football. Yet, England’s squad is once again stacked with top-class players, and the offensive fire-power around Jude Bellingham, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Noni Madueke, and of course Harry Kane, almost reads like the French offensive line.
With Croatia, however, the Three Lions are facing the arguably strongest contender in Group L right in the first match. Both teams have solidly steered through the qualifiers, and with grandmaster Luka Modric still pulling the strings, the team from the Balkans once again has high aspirations!
🤓 The SFMMO has the odds almost evenly distributed, with an ever so slight edge for Croatia. However, the 90% credible region shows the large overlap between the probabilities for an England win and a Croatia win. Thus: draw.
- 📣 SFM
- England ~ Croatia
- 📚 Bookmakers
- England ~ Croatia
📊 Check the match stats: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/world-cup-2026/match/WM-SWM2026_GD1_G22
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