Recap Mixed / Multi-league

SFM Recap Tuesday

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SFM Recap Tuesday

The weekend is over and results are in. Time to revisit the calls that the Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) had made for all the matches across Europe’s Top 5 leagues over weekend!

As the receipts are in, so are also the predictions for the upcoming matches for the coming weekend already now!

📝 Recap – Matches


Manchester Unitedvs.Manchester City

More shots on goal (16 vs. 6), more crosses (22 vs. 10), more ball possession (55% vs 45%), about an equal number of expected goals (1.00 vs. 1.10) for United — but in the end, it was City who took the three points at Old Trafford!

🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?

United (39%) – City (35%)

📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
United < City
Result
0:1

🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?

United: Bruno Fernandes (33% - 0), Bryan Mbeumo (31% - 0); City: Erling Haaland (50% - 1).


Laziovs.AC Milan

In the first half it seemed that Milan was just hoping to net get run over by the Laziali. But in the second half the Rossonieri came back, equalizing Lazio’s two-goal lead within only two minutes!

🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?

Lazio (37%) – Milan (36%)

📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
Lazio > Milan
Result
2:2

🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?

Lazio: Davide Frattesi (33% - 0); Milan: Goncalo Ramos (22% - 0).


Paris FCvs.Olympique Lyon

The SFMMO had foreseen a slight advantage for Paris FC. Yet, the match stats kind of mirrored the final result (xG: 0.30 vs 0.50; shots on goal: 6 vs. 5; crosses: 9 vs. 10; corner kicks: 4 vs. 3).

🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?

Paris FC (41%) – OL (34%)

📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
Paris < OL
Result
0:0

🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?

Paris: Lassine Sinayoko (50% - 0); OL: Lois Openda (23% - 0).

📈 SFMMO – The Receipts

So far this season, the SFMMO has been scored on 192 matches out of which it called 96 results correctly, giving it an overall accuracy of 50.0% – trailing the market odds by 2.1 percentage points. Last weekend, it was the Premier League that the SFMMO struggled with mostly, calling only 3 out of 10 matches correctly, yet scored 6 out of 10 in the Serie A.

🤓 For the geeks: a detailed overview of all our calls on a match-by-match basis can be found on our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/matches/all-leagues/validation

Follow the SFM & SFMMO

🌍 On the web: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com

📱 On your phone (only iPhone): https://apps.apple.com/app/id6758757755

X On twitter @ SFM_Predicts

🎮 Accept the challenge and play against the SFMMO yourself on our website!

#football #prediction #forecasting #sportsanalytics #sfm #factormodels #alpha


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