The weekend is over and results are in. Time to revisit the calls that the Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) had made for all of last weekend’s matches across Europe’s Top 5 leagues!
📝 Recap – Matches
Liverpoolvs.
Manchester City
Everyone had awaited a festival. Turned out to be one. Though, for City only. Yes, Liverpool was plagued by their top forwards Alexander Isak (projected goal probability by the SFM: 54%) and Cody Gakpo (projected goal probability by the SFM: 24%) being sidelined due to injury. Playing then with one man down for about 30 minutes was another big handicap, and just by chance, it were these 30 minutes during which City scored all their 3 goals. But 0:3 at Anfield is quite a blow still – an event that the SFMMO had given a pre-match probability of 2.6%.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- LFC < City
- ⚽ Result
- 0:3
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
LFC: Alexander Isak (54% - did not play), Cody Gakpo (24% - did not play); City: Erling Haaland (52% - 1), Antoine Semenyo (18% - 0).
Como 1907vs.
AS Roma
A draw that made Roma lose in three ways at once: the top-spot in the Serie A to Inter, Donyell Malen to a red card, and the lead over local rival Lazio.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Como > Roma
- ⚽ Result
- 0:0
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Como: Tassos Douvikas (28% - 0), Assane Diao (27% - 0); Roma: Donyell Malen (47% - 0), Matias Soule (23% - 0).
RC Lensvs.
Olympique Lyon
In pouring rain, Lens reminded everyone that they still know how to tap into their previous season’s performance.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Lens > OL
- ⚽ Result
- 2:1
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Lens: Florian Thauvin (34% - 0); OL: Ernest Nuamah (25% - 0), Lois Openda (22% - 0).
📈 SFMMO – The Receipts
So far this season, the SFMMO has been scored on 295 matches out of which it called 159 results correctly. This translates into an overall accuracy of 53.9% – keeping up with the market at 53.2%.
Last weekend, the SFMMO did especially well in the Ligue 1 with an accuracy of (again) 77.8%, and beating the market in the Serie A. The Premier League remains a weak point of the SFMMO.
🤓 For the geeks: a detailed overview of all our calls on a match-by-match basis can be found on our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/matches/all-leagues/validation
