It’s Friday again, and that means, a weekend full of European club football ahead of us!
It was another busy week for many players, as many teams were off to duties in the Champions League, Europa League, Conference League — and whatever other league there still is.
In the good old days, qualifying for one of the European club competitions was a major goal. Nowadays it feels like every team that does not get relegated is playing “internationally”.
Anyway, there are some interesting matches scheduled for this weekend. This time, we will bypass the Premier League and stay on the continent.
So, let’s dive directly into the SFMMO’s and SFM’s projections — as always: shoutout to the fabulous modelling skills of Alexandre Andorra!
🥅 Preview – Matches
Bayern Munichvs.
RB Leipzig
Writing about the Bundesliga, and especially Bayern, is about as boring as it can get. It is mostly thinking about how long it will take Harry Kane to score a clean hattrick.
But this season is different! Bayern does not appear to have the confidence and Selbstverständlichkeit (the “Mia-San-Mia”) of the previous seasons. Yes, we still need to find a team that is to beat Bayern this season, but last week’s draw against Augsburg and a 3:3 draw, up in Norway’s North against Viking Stavanger, makes the spoiled Bayern supporters quite worried.
But is Leipzig really the team to beat Bayern — in their living room? RB sits even two points behind Bayern. But Red Bull does have a crucial factor that Bayern is lacking: momentum! After last week’s 6:0 blowout against Eintracht Frankfurt, RB followed up with a 1:0 win over PSV Eindhoven during the week in the Champions League.
Hence, the short-term trajectories of the two teams could hardly be any different. But as any investor knows, momentum tends to crash at times — and when it does, it mostly crashes hard.
🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?
According to the SFMMO, Leipzig’s short-term run is indeed going to come to an end: Bayern (63%) - Leipzig (17%).
🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?
Bayern: Harry Kane (44%), Michael Olise (35%), Luis Diaz (23%); Leipzig: Christopher Nkunku (25%), Romulo (15%), Antonio Nusa (14%).
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Bayern > Leipzig
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Bayern > Leipzig
📊 Check out all match-related predictions here.
Juventusvs.
Lazio
For many teams, the international break was a reset. Not so for Lazio. Gennaro Gattuso and his team just picked up where they had left off: winning. Last week’s win over AC Monza made them overtake their local rival AS Roma and are sitting together with Inter at the top of the table.
Juventus was off to an unexpectedly good start into the season as well, but 5 points out of the last 4 games made them fall behind the top teams. Thus, Sunday’s clash against Lazio will be a crucial test to measure whether Juve’s recent decline was only noise or rather signal.
🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?
The SFMMO is not giving much credence to Lazio’s recent performance. It rather seems to bet on Juve’s years’ long track record: Juve (53%) – Lazio (21%). Even the probability of a draw is higher than Lazio winning!
🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?
Juve: Randal Kolo Muani (25%), Nico Gonzalez (23%), ... Nick Woltemade (17% – only 6th most likely Juventus player to score); Lazio: Albert Gudmundsson (18%), Tijani Noslin (18%).
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Juve > Lazio
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Juve > Lazio
📊 Check out all match-related predictions here.
Real Betisvs.
FC Barcelona
The match of the week in La Liga! Third-placed Betis is hosting first-placed Barça — one week out from El Clásico!
Barça has delivered a remarkable performance so far this season: 8 games, 8 wins – sitting 5 points ahead of Betis, and 6 points ahead of archrival Real Madrid. With one week to go until THE most electrifying match in club football, there is no way of giving up momentum just now.
However, Betis is a tough one. The team from the South of Spain has already demonstrated this season that it doesn’t fear at all to stand up against the big ones: in gameweek 2, they defeated Real Madrid at the very place where they are going to host Barça on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. local time.
🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?
No momentum crash for Barça on the horizon according to the SFMMO: Betis (16%) – Barça (65%) – with a 1:2 (9.7%) and 0:2 (9.2%) the most likely scorelines.
🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?
Betis: Cucho (23%); Barça: Raphinha (68%), Lamine Yamal (44%).
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Betis < Barça
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Betis < Barça
📊 Check out all match-related predictions here.
