The weekend is over and results are in. Time to revisit the calls that the Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) had made for all of last weekend’s matches across Europe’s Top 5 leagues!
📝 Recap – Matches
Bayern Münchenvs.
RB Leipzig
Well, that was a textbook momentum crash... Bayern’s answer to Leipzig’s own 6:0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt: a 6:1 shootout. The SFMMO got the direction right, yet, was quite too cautious about the final outcome: the final result was given only a 0.7% probability.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Bayern > Leipzig
- ⚽ Result
- 6:1
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Bayern: Harry Kane (44% - 1), Michael Olise (35% - 1), Luis Diaz (23% - 3); Leipzig: Christopher Nkunku (25% - 0), Romulo (15% - 0), Antonio Nusa (14% - 0).
Juventusvs.
Lazio
Yeah, well, Gennaro Gattuso caught the SFMMO on the wrong foot here. Lazio silenced its critics and sceptics yet another time!
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Juve > Lazio
- ⚽ Result
- 0:3
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Juve: Randal Kolo Muani (25% - 0), Nico Gonzalez (23% - 0), ... Nick Woltemade (17% – 0); Lazio: Albert Gudmundsson (18% - did not play), Tijani Noslin (18% - 0).
Real Betisvs.
FC Barcelona
What a match that was! Neither team wanted to play it safe! Either was eager to go for the win, resulting in a spectacular fight at the highest level.
But was the decisive scene the red card against Betis’ Bernal in minute 54’? It was just moments after the Andalusians had closed in on Barça: 2:3. That of course is just speculation. But for sure, it would have been a much more interesting 35-40 minutes that were still left in the game.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Betis < Barça
- ⚽ Result
- 2:5
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Betis: Cucho (23% - 0); Barça: Raphinha (68% - 0), Lamine Yamal (44% - 1).
📈 SFMMO – The Receipts
So far this season, the SFMMO has been evaluated on 343 matches out of which it called 186 results correctly. This translates into an overall accuracy of 54.2% – slightly up from last week’s 53.9%, yet being overtaken by the market with 55.1%.
Last weekend, the SFMMO did especially well in the Premier League, calling 7 out of 10 match outcomes. Yet, it was the Bundesliga (44.4%) and the Serie A (40.0%) where it failed to beat the market (66.7% and 70% respectively).
🤓 For the geeks: a detailed overview of all our calls on a match-by-match basis can be found on our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/matches/all-leagues/validation
