SFM Tracker

Weekly Top 20 Predictions by League

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Matchday 8: Premier League (Completed Games Only)
One round — 0 graded picks. Not played yet — the boards below are the picks, still to be graded. See the full season.
SFM Top 20 Predictions
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Naive Top 20 Predictions
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No results yet. Predictions are for upcoming matches. Once games are played and results are updated, performance stats will appear here.
Premier League 2026/27 GD08 Upcoming
0 gamedays completed
History: GD01 GD02 GD03 GD04 GD05 GD06 GD07 GD08
Rank Player Team vs SFM Naive Result
1 Erling Haaland Manchester City Aston Villa 64.4% 58.1% Pending
2 Alexander Isak Liverpool Brighton & Hove Albion 55.1% 34.9% Pending
3 Joao Pedro 10 Chelsea Tottenham Hotspur 47.4% 25.8% Pending
4 Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United AFC Bournemouth 43.7% 26.4% Pending
5 Kai Havertz Arsenal Everton 38.0% 24.5% Pending
6 Bukayo Saka Arsenal Everton 35.5% 23.7% Pending
7 Brian Brobbey Sunderland Leeds United 35.3% 20.2% Pending
8 Morgan Rogers Chelsea Tottenham Hotspur 32.5% 21.9% Pending
9 Benjamin Sesko Manchester United AFC Bournemouth 32.4% 33.2% Pending
10 Nicolas Jackson Aston Villa Manchester City 31.1% 30.1% Pending
11 Cole Palmer Chelsea Tottenham Hotspur 30.9% 33.6% Pending
12 Bruno Fernandes Manchester United AFC Bournemouth 30.9% 22.3% Pending
13 Dominic Calvert Lewin Leeds United Sunderland 30.2% 23.1% Pending
14 Zian Flemming Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest 27.0% 31.6% Pending
16 Joergen Strand Larsen Crystal Palace Newcastle United 25.9% 22.1% Pending
17 Kevin Schade Brentford Hull City 25.9% 18.0% Pending
18 Matheus Cunha Manchester United AFC Bournemouth 25.5% 22.7% Pending
19 Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 25.1% 27.4% Pending
20 Emanuel Emegha Chelsea Tottenham Hotspur 24.9% 33.0% Pending
19 Dan Ndoye Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 24.7% 10.2% Pending
4 Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 24.2% 15.0% Pending
5 Liam Delap Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 23.8% 17.6% Pending
17 Emersonn Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest 23.6% 19.9% Pending
20 Cody Gakpo Liverpool Brighton & Hove Albion 22.9% 22.3% Pending
6 Chris Wood Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 22.0% 28.4% Pending
7 Morgan Gibbs White Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 20.8% 15.9% Pending
8 Chuba Akpom Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest 18.2% 15.3% Pending
12 Callum Hudson Odoi Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 13.6% 10.7% Pending
13 James Mcatee Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 13.1% 9.2% Pending
10 Jaden Philogene Bidace Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest 13.0% 9.1% Pending
11 Julio Enciso Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest 12.9% 10.2% Pending
15 Nicolas Martin Dominguez Nottingham Forest Ipswich Town 8.9% 3.6% Pending
14 Exequiel Palacios Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest 8.2% 8.4% Pending
SFM Tracker
Top 20 Selection

For each league and gameday, we select the 20 players with the highest median probability of scoring at least one goal as predicted by the SFM.

Frozen Predictions

Predictions are locked before matches are played. This ensures transparent, verifiable performance tracking.

Fair Comparison

We compare SFM's top 20 picks against Naive's own top 20 picks (ranked by historical average). This is apples-to-apples.

Brier Score

Evaluation metric for probabilistic predictions. Measures both calibration and discrimination. Lower is better.