World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Monday, July 6, 2026
Win: Mexico
16.6%
90% CI: 9.7–25.4
Draw
25.8%
90% CI: 19.7–31.5
Win: England
57.6%
90% CI: 45.0–70.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Mexico
xG 0.68
0
51.4%
39.4%–62.9%
1
33.7%
29.2%–36.7%
2
11.5%
6.8%–17.1%
3+
3.4%
1.2%–6.8%
England
xG 1.53
0
22.3%
13.5%–32.1%
1
32.8%
27.0%–36.5%
2
24.7%
20.7%–27.0%
3+
20.2%
10.7%–32.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Mexico, draw, Win: England — shaded by likelihood.
|
Mexico
|
England
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 11.5 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Goals 2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.