World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Monday, July 6, 2026
Win: Portugal
40.3%
90% CI: 26.5–55.3
Draw
22.3%
90% CI: 19.3–25.3
Win: Spain
37.5%
90% CI: 24.0–51.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Portugal
xG 1.74
0
18.3%
9.9%–28.1%
1
30.3%
22.9%–35.7%
2
25.8%
22.6%–27.1%
3+
25.6%
13.6%–40.7%
Spain
xG 1.67
0
19.5%
11.1%–29.6%
1
31.1%
24.4%–36.0%
2
25.5%
21.9%–27.1%
3+
23.8%
12.4%–37.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Portugal, draw, Win: Spain — shaded by likelihood.
|
Portugal
|
Spain
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals 1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Goals 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.