World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Monday, July 6, 2026
Win: Portugal
40.2%
90% CI: 26.3–55.4
Draw
21.9%
90% CI: 19.0–24.9
Win: Spain
37.9%
90% CI: 24.2–52.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Portugal
xG 1.78
0
17.7%
9.4%–27.3%
1
29.8%
22.2%–35.5%
2
25.9%
22.9%–27.1%
3+
26.7%
14.2%–42.2%
Spain
xG 1.73
0
18.6%
10.4%–28.5%
1
30.5%
23.5%–35.8%
2
25.8%
22.4%–27.1%
3+
25.2%
13.3%–39.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Portugal, draw, Win: Spain — shaded by likelihood.
|
Portugal
|
Spain
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals 1 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Goals 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.