World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Monday, July 6, 2026
1–1
most likely
Win: Portugal
40.2%
90% CI: 26.3–55.4
Draw
21.9%
90% CI: 19.0–24.9
Win: Spain
37.9%
90% CI: 24.2–52.4

Marginal Distributions: Goals

The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.

Portugal xG 1.78
0
17.7% 9.4%–27.3%
1
29.8% 22.2%–35.5%
2
25.9% 22.9%–27.1%
3+
26.7% 14.2%–42.2%
Spain xG 1.73
0
18.6% 10.4%–28.5%
1
30.5% 23.5%–35.8%
2
25.8% 22.4%–27.1%
3+
25.2% 13.3%–39.4%

Scoreline Probabilities

Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Portugal, draw, Win: Spain — shaded by likelihood.

Portugal Spain
Goals 0Goals 1Goals 2Goals 3Goals 4Goals 5
Goals 0 3.3 5.4 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.4
Goals 1 5.5 9.1 7.7 4.4 2.0 0.7
Goals 2 4.8 7.9 6.7 3.9 1.7 0.6
Goals 3 2.9 4.7 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.4
Goals 4 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2
Goals 5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.