We’re down to the final 4 teams, and it is roughly those 4 teams that the bookmakers had anticipated.
Admittedly, our SFMMO had a slightly different take as the line chart below documents: Germany ranked 3rd at the very start, but failed embarrassingly;
Belgium was the SFMMO’s champion pick. They heroically saved the jogo bonito from becoming a complete farce (did someone say: “[...] to the stone age”?), but were then stopped out by Spain after a fierce fight.
Enough rambling, let’s take a look at the Semi Finals and what the SFMMO has to say about it.
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!!️ Note: the “most likely” scoreline need not necessarily coincide with the W/D/L probabilities, as one team may have more total ways to win.
Francevs.
Spain
Lucky you, if you have the luxury of giving players the likes of Rayan Cherki about 60 minutes of playing time and keeping N’Golo Kanté entirely on the bench. Some of your neighbors would be happy to have them!
France does indeed seem unbeatable. Yet, Spain looks like a Bastille, having conceded only a single goal (by Belgium!) in this World Cup so far. But the French have a certain tradition with Bastilles on the 14th of July...hard to imagine, that the French offensive line won’t find the back of the net on such a day. Indeed, the SFMMO assigns a probability of about 25% for France to not score at all – slightly down (!) from their Quarter Finals match against Morocco.
🤓 The SFMMO tilts towards a win for France in regular time, yet the most likely scoreline after 90 minutes seems to be a draw.
- 📣 SFM
- France > Spain
- 📚 Bookmakers
- France > Spain
📊 Check the match stats: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/world-cup-2026/match/WM-SWM2026_GD7_G1
Englandvs.
Argentina
40 years after the goal of the century, England and Argentina face each other again in a World Cup! The score in the Quarter Finals back then: 2:1 for Argentina. On Wednesday, this would be a 5.7% probability event!
England has already overcome the spirit of Diego Armando Maradona in the Aztec Stadium during the Round of 16. Or is Atlanta the new Mexico City? Messi has already shown that the “Hand of God” is no stranger to his skill set...
🤓 The SFMMO doesn’t seem to care about World Cup history. The call is clear: England.
- 📣 SFM
- England > Argentina
- 📚 Bookmakers
- England > Argentina
📊 Check the match stats: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/world-cup-2026/match/WM-SWM2026_GD7_G2
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