World Cup 2026 · Matchday 7 · Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Win: France
39.3%
90% CI: 27.5–52.3
Draw
25.7%
90% CI: 22.2–29.4
Win: Spain
35.0%
90% CI: 23.5–47.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
France
xG 1.39
0
25.7%
15.9%–36.4%
1
34.1%
29.2%–36.7%
2
23.4%
18.6%–26.9%
3+
16.8%
8.2%–28.1%
Spain
xG 1.29
0
28.1%
17.9%–39.2%
1
35.0%
30.8%–36.8%
2
22.4%
17.2%–26.5%
3+
14.5%
6.9%–24.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: France, draw, Win: Spain — shaded by likelihood.
|
France
|
Spain
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Goals 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Goals 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.