World Cup 2026 · Matchday 7 · Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Win: England
42.8%
90% CI: 31.9–54.3
Draw
29.2%
90% CI: 24.9–33.9
Win: Argentina
28.0%
90% CI: 18.8–38.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
England
xG 1.22
0
30.3%
20.6%–40.6%
1
35.6%
32.6%–36.8%
2
21.5%
16.5%–25.7%
3+
12.7%
6.3%–21.1%
Argentina
xG 0.92
0
40.5%
28.6%–52.3%
1
36.0%
33.8%–36.8%
2
16.6%
11.0%–22.4%
3+
7.0%
2.8%–13.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: England, draw, Win: Argentina — shaded by likelihood.
|
England
|
Argentina
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.