World Cup 2026 · Matchday 9 · Sunday, July 19, 2026
Win: Spain
52.0%
90% CI: 39.0–65.1
Draw
24.8%
90% CI: 19.9–29.3
Win: Argentina
23.3%
90% CI: 14.2–34.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Spain
xG 1.62
0
20.6%
12.0%–30.3%
1
31.8%
25.4%–36.2%
2
25.3%
21.6%–27.1%
3+
22.4%
11.9%–35.6%
Argentina
xG 0.98
0
38.0%
26.4%–49.7%
1
36.1%
34.2%–36.8%
2
17.8%
12.2%–23.4%
3+
8.1%
3.4%–15.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Spain, draw, Win: Argentina — shaded by likelihood.
|
Spain
|
Argentina
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.