World Cup 2026
The Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) — a Bayesian regression model for match outcome forecasts.
24 fixtures
Win / Draw / Loss figures are posterior means from the Bayesian model, each shown with its
90% credible interval. Because they are three separate estimates, they may not sum to exactly 100%.
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Matchday 1
Thu, Jun 11
Most likely: 1–0
Mexico
xG
1.44 · 0.79
South Africa
Win: Mexico
52.0%
37.6–66.6
Draw
27.0%
20.4–32.9
Win: South Africa
21.0%
12.1–31.9
Fri, Jun 12
Most likely: 1–1
South Korea
xG
1.17 · 1.18
Czechia
Win: South Korea
35.7%
24.4–48.6
Draw
27.9%
24.0–32.1
Win: Czechia
36.4%
24.8–48.8
Fri, Jun 12
Most likely: 1–1
Canada
xG
1.39 · 1.50
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Win: Canada
35.2%
22.0–50.1
Draw
24.5%
20.9–28.3
Win: Bosnia & Herzegovina
40.3%
26.1–55.3
Sat, Jun 13
Most likely: 0–1
United States
xG
1.01 · 1.16
Paraguay
Win: United States
31.7%
21.2–43.4
Draw
29.2%
25.0–33.7
Win: Paraguay
39.0%
27.3–51.6
Sat, Jun 13
Most likely: 0–2
Qatar
xG
0.82 · 2.21
Switzerland
Win: Qatar
12.9%
6.6–20.7
Draw
18.6%
12.6–24.2
Win: Switzerland
68.5%
55.6–80.3
Sun, Jun 14
Most likely: 1–1
Netherlands
xG
1.46 · 1.41
Japan
Win: Netherlands
38.6%
26.7–51.2
Draw
24.7%
21.7–27.9
Win: Japan
36.6%
25.0–49.5
Sun, Jun 14
Most likely: 1–0
Brazil
xG
1.28 · 0.89
Morocco
Win: Brazil
45.1%
32.4–58.5
Draw
28.7%
23.6–33.6
Win: Morocco
26.2%
16.8–36.9
Sun, Jun 14
Most likely: 0–1
Haiti
xG
1.00 · 1.54
Scotland
Win: Haiti
25.1%
14.3–37.5
Draw
25.5%
19.7–30.8
Win: Scotland
49.4%
34.2–65.1
Sun, Jun 14
Most likely: 1–1
Australia
xG
1.58 · 1.61
Türkiye
Win: Australia
37.8%
24.9–51.7
Draw
23.2%
20.3–26.3
Win: Türkiye
38.9%
26.2–53.0
Sun, Jun 14
Most likely: 2–0
Germany
xG
2.14 · 0.90
Curaçao
Win: Germany
65.0%
50.3–78.5
Draw
19.7%
13.3–25.6
Win: Curaçao
15.3%
7.6–25.1
Mon, Jun 15
Most likely: 0–1
Ivory Coast
xG
0.77 · 1.58
Ecuador
Win: Ivory Coast
18.6%
10.1–28.5
Draw
25.4%
18.1–32.1
Win: Ecuador
56.1%
41.2–71.4
Mon, Jun 15
Most likely: 1–0
Sweden
xG
1.47 · 0.99
Tunisia
Win: Sweden
48.2%
33.8–63.2
Draw
26.2%
20.9–31.2
Win: Tunisia
25.7%
15.2–38.0
Mon, Jun 15
Most likely: 2–0
Spain
xG
2.93 · 0.74
Cape Verde
Win: Spain
79.9%
67.6–89.2
Draw
12.4%
6.1–19.3
Win: Cape Verde
7.2%
2.6–13.6
Mon, Jun 15
Most likely: 3–0
Belgium
xG
3.70 · 0.56
Egypt
Win: Belgium
88.2%
80.9–92.1
Draw
6.9%
2.6–12.7
Win: Egypt
2.9%
0.8–6.2
Tue, Jun 16
Most likely: 0–1
Saudi Arabia
xG
0.86 · 1.43
Uruguay
Win: Saudi Arabia
22.8%
14.9–31.7
Draw
27.0%
22.1–31.7
Win: Uruguay
50.2%
38.4–62.2
Tue, Jun 16
Most likely: 1–0
Iran
xG
1.41 · 0.68
New Zealand
Win: Iran
53.9%
38.5–70.5
Draw
27.7%
19.3–35.6
Win: New Zealand
18.4%
9.8–28.3
Tue, Jun 16
Most likely: 2–0
France
xG
2.09 · 0.65
Senegal
Win: France
70.1%
56.5–82.2
Draw
19.0%
12.0–26.1
Win: Senegal
10.9%
5.4–18.1
Wed, Jun 17
Most likely: 0–1
Iraq
xG
0.98 · 1.41
Norway
Win: Iraq
26.2%
16.2–37.8
Draw
26.8%
22.1–31.4
Win: Norway
46.9%
34.0–60.8
Wed, Jun 17
Most likely: 2–0
Argentina
xG
2.68 · 0.87
Algeria
Win: Argentina
74.4%
61.4–85.5
Draw
15.0%
8.7–21.5
Win: Algeria
10.3%
4.6–17.7
Wed, Jun 17
Most likely: 1–1
Austria
xG
1.84 · 1.38
Jordan
Win: Austria
48.3%
33.2–63.5
Draw
22.5%
18.3–26.2
Win: Jordan
29.2%
17.3–43.1
Wed, Jun 17
Most likely: 2–0
Portugal
xG
2.61 · 0.92
DR Congo
Win: Portugal
72.2%
56.8–85.0
Draw
15.8%
9.0–22.6
Win: DR Congo
11.7%
4.9–20.9
Wed, Jun 17
Most likely: 1–1
England
xG
1.18 · 1.23
Croatia
Win: England
35.2%
24.7–46.6
Draw
27.5%
23.9–31.3
Win: Croatia
37.3%
26.1–49.6
Thu, Jun 18
Most likely: 1–1
Ghana
xG
1.24 · 1.12
Panama
Win: Ghana
39.0%
27.2–51.6
Draw
27.8%
23.9–32.0
Win: Panama
33.2%
22.1–45.5
Thu, Jun 18
Most likely: 1–1
Uzbekistan
xG
1.08 · 1.46
Colombia
Win: Uzbekistan
28.1%
18.2–39.2
Draw
26.1%
21.9–30.4
Win: Colombia
45.7%
33.3–58.7